[Facts] Possible Scenarios after Bhutto's Killing

The assassination of Pakistan opposition leader Benazir Bhutto on Dec. 27 has sparked turmoil in the nuclear-armed country and prompted the postponement of a general election for six weeks until Feb. 18.

Here is an explanation of how elections work in Pakistan and some scenarios for the outcome of the vote.

Scenarios

* For Musharraf: Bhutto's death, while removing an old rival, is likely to lead to even greater pressure on Musharraf who has seen his popularity slide this year. Musharraf was pinning his hopes on a smooth, broadly accepted election with the party that backs him winning enough seats to form a coalition. Many Pakistanis, who relish conspiracy theories, are likely to suspect government involvement, or blame it for failing to provide sufficient security, even if the evidence eventually points to the hand of Islamist militants, who have at least twice tried to kill the president in bomb attacks.

* For Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party: Bhutto's party, founded by her father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, has been widely seen as a one-person party. In the absence of a strong political figure in Bhutto's family, or in the party, her Pakistan People's Party could split into factions.

* For the U.S.-led war on terrorism: Bhutto was a staunch ally of the United States and had spoken out strongly of the need to fight militancy in her election campaign speeches. The United States had hoped the liberal-minded Musharraf and Bhutto might have shared power and formed a solid bulwark against militancy. Al Qaeda and allied militants are likely to take welcome her death.

Upcoming Election

Few Pakistanis expect the parliamentary election to be fair, but Musharraf needs a vote with enough credibility to reduce criticism of his use of emergency powers to secure a second five-year term.

Musharraf, who came to power in a military coup in 1999, imposed emergency rule on Nov. 3 to rid the Supreme Court of judges who might have annuled his re-election.

He was re-elected by the outgoing parliament and provincial assemblies in October, a month before they were dissolved, and stepped down as army chief on Nov. 28 to be sworn in as a civilian leader.

Musharraf lifted the state of emergency and restored the constitution on Dec. 15. After the assassination of Bhutto, elections that had been scheduled for Jan. 8 were delayed to Feb. 18.

The election is the third and final phase of a transition to civilian-led democracy for a nuclear-armed country threatened with instability by growing Islamist militancy.

How Elections Work

-- There are about 160 million people in Pakistan, about half are eligible to vote. But at the last election in 2002, the turnout was reckoned to be less than 30 million.

-- Pakistan's first election in 1970, was regarded as the most free. The result accelerated the break up of Pakistan, a country formed in 1947 from the partition on India. East Pakistan became Bangladesh, after Indian military intervention and the defeat of the Pakistan army in 1971.

-- Intelligence agencies subsequently became adept at manipulating the vote and the politicians, feudal lords and tribal maliks, or chieftains, wielding influence.

-- The military and Punjabi establishment favors a strong centralized state in a country riven by regional and ethnic divisions. Outside Punjab, the richest and most populous of Pakistan's four provinces, regional parties have been squeezed. Islamist parties have been allowed to occupy their space, particularly in North West Frontier Province and Baluchistan.

-- The Islamist parties never got more than 10 percent of the vote until 2002, when, with the leaders of the mainstream opposition hounded out the country, they garnered 11 percent giving them 17 percent of the seats in the National Assembly.

-- Opinion polls, though unreliable, show the popularity of Musharraf and his Pakistan Muslim League alllies has plummeted.