DUBAI (AlArabiya.net)
Following are a range of views on what Iraq could look like in five years time.
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Iraqi Accord Front Adnan Al-Dulaimi, key figure in the Iraqi Accord Front, the main Sunni political bloc in parliament:
"Our view towards the future of Iraq is surrounded with pessimism, because the events which are happening now are a preface to what will happen in the future.
"Iraq's southern provinces are moving close to conflict over power and fortune. American forces will not withdraw from Iraq, and even if they did a long-term presence will be maintained. The influence of neighboring countries will continue to grow." |
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SCIRI Hameed Al-Mualla, MP and Senior Member of The Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, one of the biggest Shiite parties in parliament:
"The coming five years will witness the emergence of a new Iraq. With the recent passing of key laws by parliament, the clock has ticked, announcing a new start for a country that has suffered years of isolation and a series of setbacks."
"I believe that in five years Iraq will overcome all hurdles and take its role as an influential country." |
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Sadr loyalist Nassar Al-Rubaie, Head of political bloc loyal to Shiite leader Moqtada Al-Sadr:
"America will practice a long-term policy aimed at undermining the government, the same policy adopted with Saddam's regime, and then the government will become a skeleton which will be recreated by U.S.-made flesh." |
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Fadhila Party Hassan Al-Shimmari, parliamentary leader of Shiite Fadhila Party that controls southern Basra:
"The American-Iranian conflict will have a long-term influence on Iraq's future. If America decides to leave Iraq, Iranian influence will grow bigger and (Iranian President Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad has expressed Iran's readiness to fill the vacuum." |
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Kurdish MP Mahmoud Othman, Kurdish Member of Parliament:
"The future of Iraq depends on many elements, among them agreement among the political blocs and the role of neighboring countries towards Iraq. I have hope that the coming years will be better than previous ones." |
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Brussels-based think tank Joost Hiltermann, Deputy Program Director at International Crisis Group Think Tank for Middle East, North Africa:
"In the worst-case scenario, Iraq would slowly disintegrate into a failed state following a significant drawdown of U.S. troops and fall prey to the ambitions and fears of its neighbors.
"In the best-case scenario, a new U.S. administration would seek and reach some kind of accommodation with Iran, bringing regional tensions down a notch and removing or at least reducing Iran's spoiler role in Iraq. This would open the way toward an accommodation among Iraq's primary political actors. Elections would take place, but real democracy would remain a goal far over the horizon.
"The most likely scenario is one in between: No real accommodation with Iran, but a shared understanding between the U.S. and Iran of their common interests in Iraq; a significant drawdown of U.S. forces, but projection of sufficient military force to prevent the country's total disintegration; no accommodation at the top, but ongoing local conflicts." |
