Lebanon has been jolted in the past four years by political killings, a war with Israel and its worst internal fighting since the 1975-90 civil war. On June 7, the Lebanese people will vote in a legislative election that will determine the shape of parliament and government until 2013.
Following is a review of divisive issues and threats to Lebanon:
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Internal political and sectarian tensions The security threat posed by rivalry among Lebanese politicians has diminished substantially since May 2008, when their power struggle spilled into violence in Beirut and other parts of the country.
A Qatari-mediated deal that produced a "national unity" government has contained tensions, helped by a diplomatic thaw between Saudi Arabia and Syria, whose support for rival factions had made the crisis more volatile. It has been eight months since a Lebanese politician was assassinated.
However, the conflict has left deep sectarian divisions between followers of the rival leaders. Communal tensions could quickly generate more violence were the domestic political climate to deteriorate, or the regional detente to collapse. |
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Conflict with Israel Hassan Nasrallah is the leader of the Shiite opposition group Hezbollah Israel and Lebanon's Shiite resistance group Hezbollah have not traded fire since a U.N. Security Council resolution halted a 34-day war in 2006.
Both sides sought to avoid another conflict during Israel's assault of Gaza in December and January. Hezbollah denied any role in rocket salvoes fired into Israel from south Lebanon. Israel responded with artillery fire on unpopulated areas. Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Kassem said on March 9 he saw little prospect of another war with Israel soon.
But any Israeli attack on Iran over its alleged nuclear program could spark another conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which shares Iran's Shiite Islamist ideology and was founded by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards after the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon. Hezbollah has expanded its arsenal since the 2006 war, according to Israeli officials and the group's own statements. |
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Qaeda Islamists Lebanese security forces have sought to crack down on al Qaeda-inspired Islamists who have tried to build a presence in Lebanon in the last three years. In 2007, the army put down an insurrection by the al Qaeda-inspired Fatah al-Islam group in a Palestinian refugee camp in the north. The 15-week battle killed at least 430 people. Sunni militants remain in the southern Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian camp, which is off limits to the security forces. But al Qaeda followers have been unable to build an organization as potent as Fatah al-Islam was before its defeat. |
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Palestinian rivalries The assassination in March of a senior official in the Palestinian Fatah faction increased tension in Lebanon's already volatile refugee camps. Kamal Medhat's killing was widely seen as linked to an internal Palestinian power struggle. In an April report on security in Lebanon, the U.N. secretary-general cited deepening divisions among Palestinian factions, including those between the Palestine Liberation Organization and Hamas, as "an additional factor of instability." Lebanon is home to 12 Palestinian camps housing around 200,000 registered refugees. |
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Palestinian bases Armed Palestinian groups were accused of firing rockets from Lebanon into Israel during its Gaza assault, highlighting a risk to stability from such factions. Outside the refugee camps, Syrian-backed Palestinian groups operate four bases along the Lebanese-Syrian border and another south of Beirut. |
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Hezbollah's weapons The role of Hezbollah's guerrilla army, which is stronger than the state's security forces, has been a major point of contention. March 14 leaders accused Hezbollah of embroiling Lebanon in the 2006 war and using its weapons to impose its will on other Lebanese in 2008, when the group and its allies took over the predominantly Muslim half of Beirut by force, effectively imposing their terms for an end to 18 months of political conflict.
March 14 leaders continue to call for a state monopoly on arms, a demand echoed by U.N. Security Council resolutions. But Hezbollah has sworn to keep the weapons it says are vital to defend Lebanon from Israel, especially in the wake of the Israeli war on Lebanon in 2006. Its stance is unlikely to change in the short or medium term, regardless of the election outcome.
The election manifesto of Christian politician Michel Aoun, an ally of Hezbollah, formally acknowledges a role for popular resistance in the defence of Lebanon. |
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Relations with Syria A 2005 photo of the scene after a car bomb killed Hariri Pulling Lebanon from Syria's orbit has been at the heart of March 14's agenda since the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri, while many March 8 leaders have very close ties to Damascus.
Shortly after the Hariri killing, Syria yielded to international pressure and ended its 29-year military presence in Lebanon. Damascus has now met another international demand by establishing diplomatic relations with its smaller neighbor for the first time since the countries' independence. S
yria still faces calls from March 14 and the United Nations to demarcate its border with Lebanon. March 14 leaders also accuse Syria of arming Palestinian groups based in Lebanon. |
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Hariri tribunal The United Nations is investigating the assassination of Hariri in 2005 (File) Establishing an international tribunal to try suspects in the Hariri assassination was another main aim of anti-Syrian politicians who blamed Damascus for the killing. The issue was central to the political conflict with Syria's allies in Lebanon and plans for the court were never approved by the Lebanese parliament or president.
The Security Council voted in May 2007 to set up the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and it began functioning in March at The Hague. Hezbollah again questioned the neutrality of an international inquiry into the assassination after the tribunal ordered the release of four pro-Syrian generals held without charge since 2005.
They had been detained at the request of the then head of the U.N. investigation. Calling the inquiry "dishonest" and "politicized", Hezbollah's leader said in May 1 speech that nobody should ask him to accept the tribunal's decisions in advance. The issue is likely to fuel tension in Lebanon if and when the prosecutor issues indictments or calls as witnesses any Syrian figures or their Lebanese allies. Syria has always denied any role in the killing. |
