BEIRUT (Reuters)
After four turbulent years that threatened to send Lebanon into its worst crisis since its 1975-90 civil war, Lebanese head to the polls on June 7 in a legislative election that is expected to be a tight contest that will determine the shape of parliament and government for the next four years.
No reliable opinion polling exists in Lebanon, but communal voting patterns or deals among politicians have all but decided the bulk of the seats in the 128-member parliament in advance. The sharpest electoral battles will be fought mainly among Christians, who are divided between Lebanon's two rival camps.
Jumblatt attacked Hezbollah chief Nassrallah Lebanon's Shiite resistance group Hezbollah and its allies are hoping to reverse the slim majority held by an anti-Syrian coalition that enjoys American and Saudi backing. But analysts predict even if Hezbollah succeed, it won't mean they can align Lebanon starkly with the group's outside backers, Syria and Iran, given strong domestic and foreign opposition to this.
The anti-Syrian alliance, or March 14 Alliance, led by Sunni Muslim politician Saad al-Hariri mustered a majority in parliament after a 2005 election. It includes Druze chief Walid Jumblatt and his former civil war Christian foes, Samir Geagea and Amin Gemayel. Opposing them are two Shiite factions -- Hezbollah, led by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and Amal, headed by parliament speaker Nabih Berri -- allied with Christian leader Michel Aoun.
The rival camps have deep political and personal rivalries, but broadly agree on Lebanon's liberal economic orientation, if not on the level of social justice that it yields. In the past they have failed to agree on sweeping political, social and administrative reform. Both have interests in the status quo. |
A 2005 photo of the scene after a car bomb killed Hariri Hezbollah's Nasrallah has said that if his side wins it will ask its rivals to join a national unity government. Hariri has said he would rather go into opposition, but he might change his mind under pressure from allies eager for a share in power or from U.S. and Saudi backers keen to dilute Hezbollah influence.
Lebanese analysts say Najib Mikati, a rich businessman from the northern city of Tripoli, is a likely choice for prime minister, which under Lebanese law must be Sunni, as a compromise candidate who has good ties with both Syria and Saudi Arabia.
The United States has made clear its preference for Hariri -- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a point of visiting the grave of his slain father Rafiq al-Hariri during a brief visit to Beirut in April -- but has not threatened a boycott of a new government that might be dominated by his opponents. However, Washington views Hezbollah as a terrorist organization and will review economic and military aid to Lebanon after the election, U.S. officials have said.
Regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia are widely reported to have helped fund the election campaigns of their Lebanese allies as part of a broader struggle pitting adversaries of the United States and Israel against Washington's Arab partners.
Israel will be wary of any outcome that bolsters Hezbollah's weight in Lebanon, but would not necessarily see it as a reason to upset the calm that has prevailed on its northern border since its 34-day war with Hezbollah in 2006. |
