Lebanon braces for high-stakes election Sunday

Lebanon goes to the polls on Sunday in a high-stakes election set to determine whether the troubled nation will keep on a pro-Western course or take a tilt towards Iran.

Close to 11,000 government employees involved in Lebanon's parliamentary election began casting their ballots on Thursday ahead of the weekend vote.

"All those in charge of the polling stations on Sunday are casting their ballots today," a government official told AFP.

Security measures were tight with monitors and security forces at every polling station, the official said.

The vote is being fought out between a U.S.-backed coalition and an alliance headed by pro-Iranian Shiite group Hezbollah in a multi-confessional country scarred throughout its modern history by war and political instability.

Washington said it will review its aid to Lebanon in the light of the outcome of Sunday's election.

The fight will be fierce, but all polls since last summer show the opposition winning by a slight margin

Abdo Saad, Beirut Center for Research and Information

Expected lead for Hezbollah

Analysts expect a tight race, with some opinion polls suggesting a narrow lead for the alliance headed by Hezbollah, the "Party of God" which fought a devastating 2006 war with Israel and is branded a terror group by Washington.

Pollsters said that Hezbollah and its allies are poised to defeat Lebanon's Western-backed parliamentary majority in the election.

"The fight will be fierce, but all polls since last summer show the opposition winning by a slight margin," said Abdo Saad, head of the Beirut Center for Research and Information.

"Overall, our statistics show an opposition wins by two or three seats."

The battle will be particularly fierce in a handful of districts where Lebanon's powerful minority Christian community, divided between the two rival camps, represents the swing vote.

And security will be tight, with 50,000 soldiers and police out in force to guard against civil unrest and any repeat of the politically-motivated attacks that have rocked Lebanon over the past few years.

In mixed districts, like Zahle, a confession that brings in more expats to vote on election day could swing the scale

Pollster Kamal Feghali

Analysts said a handful of key battleground constituencies are likely to be crucial in determining the outcome of the election, notably the Metn region northeast of Beirut, the coastal city of Sidon and the eastern town of Zahle.

"Whoever wins Zahle will win the election," Saad said. "Zahle is the great decider."

Pollsters said the votes of expatriate Lebanese are likely to play a major role. Thousands have been flown home to vote by the rival parties.

"In mixed districts, like Zahle, a confession that brings in more expats to vote on election day could swing the scale," pollster Kamal Feghali told AFP.

He said the redrawing of constituency boundaries, agreed last year after a drawn out political crisis that brought the country to the brink of civil war, had played in the favor of Hezbollah and its allies.

Rabih Habre, the head of Statistics Lebanon, said he expected a tight race and a high turnout. "I think we will see the opposition win by two or three seats," he told AFP.

If Hezbollah and its allies win on June 7, we are not going to see any major immediate changes

Hilal Khachan, American University in Beirut

"Hezbollah victory will be symbolic"

Some analysts say that a victory by the Hezbollah-led alliance will not usher in an Islamist regime or any other radical social or political change, despite international concerns.

"If Hezbollah and its allies win on June 7, we are not going to see any major immediate changes," Hilal Khachan, a political science professor at the American University of Beirut, told AFP.

"We are not going to wake up to a nation of 'la ilaha illallah' (there is no God but God) or Wilayat al-Faqih," he added, referring to Iran's brand of Islamic government.

"The current political stagnation will continue," he said.

"The elections are by no means a turning point because in Lebanon you must have consensus, negotiations and coalition governments and no one can rule alone," said Joseph Alagha, a professor of Islamic studies and author of a book on Hezbollah.

"So a Hezbollah victory will be largely symbolic," he said.

Some experts believe Hezbollah, the only Lebanese faction to remain armed after Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war, is not keen on emerging the big winner on Sunday as it prefers to continue working behind the scenes rather than take centre stage.

Interior Minister Ziad Baroud said he expects the final results to be announced on Monday, barring any major security incidents or fraud.

About 3.2 million Lebanese are eligible to vote for the 128 seats in parliament, which are divided equally between Christians and Muslims.

Some 250 foreign monitors are expected to oversee the election.