Lebanon braces for tense election showdown

Lebanese voters go to the polls on Sunday for a parliamentary election showdown between the ruling Western-backed coalition and factions led by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah.

The vote is being held under tight security with 50,000 soldiers and police deployed across the country to prevent violence between the two camps.

More than 200 international observers from the European Union, the Carter Center and other institutions will oversee the election.

Both the current majority and the opposition have poured millions into the campaign, flying in thousands of their constituents from overseas amid expectations that their ballots could be a deciding factor.

Analysts and pollsters predict a tight race for the 128-seat parliament with the winner clinching victory by just a few seats.

But they also say that whoever has the upper hand in forming the new government will most probably strike a deal with the opposing camp given Lebanon's power-sharing system.

A handful of key battleground constituencies are likely to be crucial in determining the outcome, with the Christian vote, which is divided between the two camps, set to tip the scale.

Patriarch taking sides

Lebanon's Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir said on Saturday his country faced a threat to its existence, appearing to take sides against Hezbollah on the eve of an election whose outcome will be decided by the Christian vote.

"There are threats facing Lebanon's identity and our Arab identity, and we must be wary of this danger," said Sfeir, who in February warned that it could be dangerous if the Hezbollah-led camp unseats the majority in parliament.

Sfeir, 89, has a stormy relationship with Hezbollah's main Christian ally, Michel Aoun, who currently heads the largest Christian bloc in Lebanon's 128-seat parliament. Seats in the chamber are divided according to sectarian quotas.

There are threats facing Lebanon's identity and our Arab identity, and we must be wary of this danger

Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir

The powerful patriarch has previously echoed March 14 calls for a state monopoly on weapons -- a challenge to the heavily armed Hezbollah.

He also has a record of opposition to Syrian influence in Lebanon, which is central to the agenda of "March 14."

"We must be alert to the schemes being plotted for us and thwart the intense efforts which, if they succeed, will change the face of our country," Sfeir said.

Election showdown

How Aoun and his Christian rivals fare in the parliamentary election on Sunday will decide whether the U.S.-backed "March 14" alliance, led by Sunni politician Saad al-Hariri, retains its majority or loses to the Shiite Hezbollah, backed by Iran and Syria, and its allies.

In February, al-Masira magazine quoted the patriarch as saying victory for the pro-Syria alliance would lead to "mistakes...with a historic impact on the nation's fate."

Hezbollah's Christian opponents also include Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces party and the Phalange party led by former President Amin Gemayel. Both have attacked Aoun for the alliance he struck with Hezbollah three years ago and his rapprochement with neighboring Syria.

The United States, which lists Hezbollah as a terrorist group, said it will review aid to Lebanon depending on the shape of the next government and its policies.

Hezbollah, the most powerful single group in the country, holds one portfolio in the current 30-seat national unity cabinet and has repeatedly called for the formation of another broad unity government after the election.

We must be alert to the schemes being plotted for us and thwart the intense efforts which, if they succeed, will change the face of our country

Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir