Muna Khan: It’s the economy, stupid. Or how Recep Erdogan won Turkey’s election

At a time when election results anywhere tend to show voter apathy, there are many lessons to learn from Turkey’s turnout at the polls.

Namely that at the end of the day, when it comes to voting, it’s usually the economy that is the decisive factor.

Recep Erdogan secured his third term as prime minister with results that are the stuff leaders can only dream of.

When his party the AKP first won the elections in 2002, it received 10.7 million votes. On June 12 those figures doubled to 21.4 million. While Mr. Erdogan falls short of the parliamentary seats required to overhaul the Constitution without a referendum, he has a strong enough mandate to do this and one hopes he does with a consensus.

These formidable results are down to one thing: the economy. Its growth rate is 9 percent, the country’s GDP has doubled since he first came into power and IMF data suggests it could cross $1 trillion this year and exports have almost tripled. The IMF estimates that by 2015, Turkey’s economy will be the world’s 16th largest.

The stunning facts and figures are irrelevant to the Turks whose lives have changed under Mr. Erdogan’s tenure. The dramatic improvement in their living standards is what got him the votes to soldier on with his ambitious plans. They are confident that he will be able to address investor concerns about the country’s fast growing credit and a fiscal policy that needs to be tightened.

Although Mr. Erdogan campaigned on domestic issues, his immediate priorities are foreign policy related: one, the most pressing, is relations with Syria and two, a potential confrontation with Israel over the upcoming flotilla carrying goods to Palestine.

Over the years, Mr. Erdogan has matured into a leader that handles foreign policy issues firmly without fear of reprisal from the West. Whether it is rebuilding once fractious relations with Syria and then chastising President Bashar Al Assad for his crackdown or showing that he is able to stand up to the bullying tactics of Israel (Mr. Erdogan is still remembered and beloved for walking out of a World Economic Forum discussion in Davos to protest what he saw was the moderator’s favoring of Israel), a majority of Turks say they are proud of his leadership.

Admiration aside, Mr. Erdogan’s desire to push ahead with ambitious plans need to be met with caution. The party’s plans to rewrite the Constitution with an enhanced role for the presidency (which Mr. Erdogan is vying next) and a diminished role for the military do not have the overwhelming support that his economic policies do. The largely secular military and judiciary is apprehensive of any changes that threaten the secular fabric of Turkey.

While the economy came out trumps as the decisive factor, there are other issues at stake here which is where society can step in and step up to the task of ensuring Mr. Erdogan doesn’t quash issues in his journey to becoming an emperor.

(Muna Khan, Editor of Al Arabiya English, can be reached at [email protected])