Yemeni President Saleh says he will step down ‘in the coming days’

Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh said on Saturday he would relinquish power ‘in the coming days,’ adding that “men, either military or civilian,” will succeed him after the country has been largely paralyzed by nearly nine months of mass protests against his 33 year rule.

“I reject power and I will continue to reject it, and I will be leaving power in the coming days,” he said in a speech on state television.

Saleh said it was “impossible to let them destroy the country,” whereas there were “sincere men, whether they be military or civilian” who were capable of governing Yemen.

Saleh added that he will call for a meeting with the parliament and the shura council for “important decisions”

Ahmad al-Soufi, media advisor to the Yemeni president, told Al Arabiya that Saleh “will only relinquish power within the framework of a negotiated deal with the opposition.”

The president, who has been in power for 33 years, has refused to hand over power to the opposition under the terms of a transition plan drawn up by Yemen’s oil-rich Arab neighbors in the Gulf.

Arif al-Sarmi, Yemeni political scientist, said it was unlikely that Saleh would easily surrender power.

“There is nothing new in Saleh’s statement that he would leave power,” Sarmi said. “The likely scenario is that he would surrender power to his closest aides who are already in power.”

Diplomats have said they are close to getting international consensus for issuing a Security Council resolution which may add to pressures on the country to finalize a power transfer.

“This is new propaganda from Saleh before Yemen is discussed at the security council,” said Mohammed al-Sabri, a spokesman for the opposition’s political coalition. “Four months have passed since he said he accepted the Gulf transition deal, so what is stopping him? He doesn’t even need a few days to do it.”

The veteran leader has been clinging to power while opposition and ruling party representatives cast about for a formula to reach a deal. It has been deadlocked over a debate over whether Saleh should relinquish power before or after an early election.

Widespread demonstrations in Yemen have been inspired by this year’s uprisings across the Arab world with citizens fighting to replace autocratic leaders with democratic governments and the rule of law.

Surprise return

Saleh recently made a surprise return to Yemen after three months convalescence in Saudi Arabia from a June assassination attempt. Many in the capital, which has been wracked with violence in recent weeks, feared his return might signal a move towards asserting power through military might.

Abdulghani al-Iryani, a Yemeni political analyst, said: “This is just Saleh’s latest line. I don’t think it is really anything new. I remember he once before said he would be ready to leave any day, so I don’t think he means what he said.”

Saleh has made many verbal concessions during the protests against him which began in January, including promising to step down in return for immunity from prosecution.

Frustration with Saleh’s intransigence had pushed Yemenis, many of them heavily armed and with experience of wars and insurgencies, closer to a violent power struggle that could give al Qaeda’s regional wing more room to operate.

All of these factors spark concern for stability in a country that sits on a shipping lane through which more than three million barrels of oil pass each day.

Saleh is a clever operator who has survived many tussles with rivals, and skillfully used bribes and favours to keep tribal and political backers loyal.

But keeping his allies’ loyalty has become more difficult as Yemen sinks into an economic crisis.

More than 40 percent of Yemenis live on less than $2 a day while a third face chronic hunger. Dwindling water and oil supplies are also a problem.

Military struggle

Many opponents of Saleh said the latest loophole in the president’s speech may be found in the growing military escalation in Sanaa, which is now carved into spheres of influence between Saleh’s forces and the pro-opposition troops of defected general Ali Mohsen.

Mohsen dealt a major blow to Saleh by throwing his weight behind the protesters in March. His troops clashed with forces lead by Saleh’s son and nephew in recent weeks, rocking the capital with days of heavy shelling. Some major streets are still shut due to sporadic gunfights.

Analysts said Saleh’s handover and early elections may be meaningless if the capital and much of the country is still under de-facto military control by his relatives.

“There was something about this speech that made me nervous,” said Yemeni political analyst Ali Seif Hassan. “Unifying the army is the problem now...it’s clear he wants to run the elections while his son and relatives are still running most of the military.”

In his speech, Saleh signalled that he was backing the vice president for future leadership. In footage shown after the speech, it was Vice President Abd-Rabbu Hadi Mansour, not Saleh, who greeted parliamentarians who were gathered at the presidential palace.

Mansour has long been seen as the ideal consensus candidate acceptable to the opposition, though hardliners in the ruling party have shunned him.

“I want to praise the vice president for his leadership in my absence... He is an experienced military man,” Saleh said.

Saleh’s opponents said even if he stepped down, they feared the military situation was beyond politicians’ control.

“The seriousness of Saleh’s speech will be tested by his agreement to form a neutral committee to reorganise the military before early elections. But elections will be meaningless if our army is divided.”

Regional resonance

Saleh pledged cooperation with the United States after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on U.S. cities and received military and economic aid in return. But by 2004 al Qaeda appeared to be in disarray and U.S. interest waned.

In 2006 Washington cut aid to mark its anger at Yemen’s perceived lenience towards militants and U.S. counter-terrorism officials rank Yemen as a top concern after Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Saudi Arabia is the Yemeni government’s biggest financial donor and most important ally, along with the United States, but some Yemenis resent the influence of their wealthy neighbor.

The Saudis fear that al Qaeda’s local wing, renamed al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), is trying to relaunch armed attacks from Yemen to destabilize the kingdom and possibly other U.S. allies in the Gulf.

Even before the wave of pro-democracy protests against his nearly 33-year rule, Saleh was struggling to quell a separatist rebellion in the south and a Shiite insurgency in the north.