The inside story of the fighting has rarely come out in the media, but the fleeing refugees have largely put the blame on President’s forces. More than half of the city’s one million people have been forced to flee their homes because of clashes between allied Somali-Ethiopian troops and fighters who have killed at least 1,300 people in the city’s worst fighting in 16 years. Reports have confirmed that Somali forces were blindly firing at their own citizens.
Ban Ki Moon’s criticism was timely and accurate, but the sanction of the UN troops will not be welcomed by Somalis who see all outsider forces as occupiers. After all, the UN had to withdraw in 1991 after its personnel were at risk posed by the anarchy and civil war, after the removal of the then President, Said Barre. If the UN does send its troops, they will most certainly be dragged into the conflict. The UN role should have been that of Mohammed Shanoun who worked as a UN envoy in the early 90s and was largely successful in communicating and building bridges between different clans and tribal leaders.
He understood Somalia and its tribal system very well and was slowly but surely proceeding towards a better and permanent solution of this complex tribal system and recommended a large humanitarian intervention of the likes of Ethiopia in the 1980s, but instead came the hasty US intervention which immediately undermined and eventually watered down Shanoun’s good work. The rest of the story is well known which includes Black Hawk Down, heavy US casualties, ending with another hasty and rash US withdrawal from the country. Somalia since then had been the melting pot of lawlessness, anarchy and civil war, causing thousands of deaths and millions of refugees. It was not until early last year, when Islamic courts took over Mogadishu and succeeded in maintaining law and order in the capital and in the country at large, putting an end to years of fighting.
For the first time since the early 90s, all the tribes were kept in check. Islamic courts had fully functional hospitals, schools and law courts, doing the best they could in those times. These were the first six months of peace and tranquillity, Somali had seen in years, but then came the Ethiopian intervention and the results are in front of us. I use the term ‘intervention’ intently, although Islamic courts had declared ‘jihad’ on Ethiopian troops, which they claimed were stationed inside Somali borders, protecting the Somali interim government.
One can argue on the merits of Islamic courts’ declaration of jihad and its timing (as many thought it was an unwise and untimely decision), but they perceived that the Ethiopian intervention in its borders was a constant threat which undermined their organisational skills and affected their governance. I do not think that the decision of the courts was rash and unwise or untimely. It was strategic and not a fanatical call for jihad as commonly perceived.
Ethiopia has always had ambitions in Somalia and the region. Few know that almost half of Ethiopian population is Muslim and a large portion of it is ethnically Somali, but they are marginalised in the political system. Ogaden is just one example; this ethnic Somali region has triggered two wars between Somalia and Ethiopia between 1964 and 1977.
Ethiopia perceives a stable Somalia as a potential rival, which could dispute the border issue or make an alliance with Ogaden rebels and Ethiopian archrival Eritrea with whom they have fought three wars. Not surprisingly then, Ethiopian blamed Eritrean agents for helping Islamic courts.
Strategically, Somalia is on the top of US ‘war on terror’ list. Before ‘Operation Iraqi freedom’, the plan was also to “democratise” Somalia, but then Saddam was made an imminent threat by the neocons in the Bush administration. Somali “democratisation” was put on hold. Ethiopian intervention was not coincidental but planned as Ethiopia has been an ally of the US in the so-called war on terror. The creation of African Command (which split from Central command) is precisely to produce overt intelligence and direct military assistance to the US allies in North and Horn of Africa, namely Ethiopia and Egypt.
The irony is that the Somali people came very close to peace and prosperity, twice in over a decade, but the foreign intervention, both times pushed their country another decade back into anarchy and bloodshed.
Usama Butt is a research scholar based in the UK
Published in the UAE daily KHALEEJ TIMES on May 28, 2007 |
