Lebanon too, both as authority and political forces, will have to bring an end to the "gray" positions which have helped reach a settlement through the Doha Accord, the formation of a national unity government, the local reconciliations, and the initiation of national dialogue.
It seems that the biggest political challenge in Lebanon will be deciding the direction the authority will take in the grand divisions, including the relationship with Syria along with all other pending issues despite the declared bilateral intention to exchange diplomatic representation. This direction will be decided by the majority produced by the next parliamentary elections, hence the exceptional importance and attention enjoyed by these elections. This is also why local and foreign parties are mobilizing all resources to win these elections and, consequently, impose the direction that suits their agenda.
The legal tools for these elections are finally in order now that the parliament passed the electoral law based on the Doha settlement. But another battle seems to be in sight, bearing the theme of security, especially with the continued targeting of the military establishment. This targeting is focused in the northern region whose capital, Tripoli, is home to most targeted troops, where the majority belongs to the Sunni community, and where there is much talk about safe havens for extremist groups.
In this context, the objective is not only to kill off-duty soldiers through terrorist attacks in a certain region, but also to target their affiliation to the military establishment which countered terrorism, especially in the Nahr al-Bared Camp. The objective is also to target their affiliation to a specific region which granted the March 14 Forces the parliamentary majority in the last elections. In other words, this is a region with declared loyalties to a political side that will be at the heart of the upcoming battle.
The elements of turbulence abound in North Lebanon. In addition to the established presence of fundamentalist groups along with presumed locations of extremist groups, the region is also the fiefdom of two opposing Christian sides (Lebanese Forces and Marada) as well as secular opposition parties (March 8). This region is also known to share borders with Syria. As a result, it has historically maintained special social, economic and political ties with its Syrian neighbor.
Consequently, and given all these elements, the region may witness more violence against the military establishment or among local forces as the deadline for the parliamentary elections approaches. When President Bashar Assad claims that North Lebanon has become a base for radical and extremist groups in a manner that threatens Syria's security, along with the implicit warning that accompanies this statement, the picture becomes complete with respect to the expected role of this region, especially that it was the first region into which the Syrian troops entered as part of the 1976 Syrian military intervention in Lebanon.
*Published in the London-based AL-HAYAT on October 2, 2008. |
