Ghassan Rubeiz
American and Israeli politics are interdependent. In Israel, the moderate Kadima and Labor party leaderships now seem serious about reactivating negotiations with Arabs. But in recent weeks, the Kadima-Labor coalition failed to form a cabinet; snap elections are expected in February. The ultraconservative Benjamin Netanyahu may well become the next prime minister if Israelis continue to distrust the idea of trading Palestinian and Syrian land for peace. Over the next three months domestic public opinion and US politics will determine if the peace process is reactivated.
The title of my last column on the peace process was "Peace, Not in my Life Time." But I believe that the genius of Israel is pragmatism. Three issues require sober thinking. Israelis are not oblivious to a wave of change that is likely to emerge from next week's US elections. Israeli politicians are mindful of threatening Palestinian demography. Israelis ponder the implications of their creeping annexation of the West Bank. Many in Israel cannot but ponder the imponderable: If Palestine is virtually annexed, would Israel become automatically a bi-national state, looking like former South Africa?
The steady rise in Obama's poll ratings indicates that Americans are looking for the kind of change that he promises. Sensing Obama's likely election, prominent leaders in Israel have expressed serious willingness to reconsider the six-year old Arab peace proposal. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert spoke candidly on September 29, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak did the same on October 19. Both leaders offered surprisingly conciliatory public statements to the Arab world. International polls indicate that the overwhelming majority of nations prefer Illinois Senator Barack Obama to be in the White House. In sum, Obama is now the candidate of change domestically, he is now in demand for conflict resolution in the Middle East, and he is now a political star abroad.
A new era of diplomacy might start with a pivotal change in Washington. I see signs of hope for a transformed philosophy of US foreign relations.
Imagining Obama in the White House frees my imagination. An American with an African background, a global bent of mind, an ecumenical Christian, a man who celebrates diversity of every kind is bound to bring constructive change to America and to the Middle East. Am I dreaming again? By "realists," I will be ridiculed for raising my hopes again.
But I dream for a purpose: to show that the political solution for an Arab-Israeli peace is known. But this solution has been locked away by rigid attitudes, fear of change and a climate of political inaction.
My dream starts with an Obama victory; it unfolds as follows.
In response to an Obama victory, the world community is reminded that America's best tendencies are self-correction, assimilation of minorities and appreciation of diversity. Voices of cooperation in international relations come from near and far to a country that is taking risks for the promise of change.
Through Obama, a new America talks the language of partnership and empowerment and abandons the language of patronage. This new America starts planning for withdrawal from Iraq in close coordination with Europe and Iraq's neighbors.
A breakthrough in Arab-Israeli conflict is achieved through the engaged leadership of Obama. The new US president has direct influence on Israeli cabinet formation because the security of the Jewish state is tied to American support. An alliance of moderate parties with a peace agenda emerges to form a new government. A new Israeli government accepts the basic tenants of an Arab-endorsed Saudi peace plan, albeit with some reservations.
In my dream, conditions are good for exchange of land for peace: America mobilizes its resources for international cooperation; Israel bravely faces the urgency for a major land compromise; Arab regimes assume the full implications of normalization with Israel. A Palestinian state is established with agreement on the three most important issues of land/settlements, refugees and Jerusalem.
Withdrawal from the Occupied Territories is near total. A consolidated part of the Jewish settlements is preserved, allowing for minor adjustments to 1967 borders. Land lost from the West Bank to Israeli settlements is compensated with comparable Israeli land transferred to Palestinians, thus allowing Gaza to better connect with the West Bank. Israel returns the Golan Heights to Syria with border security between the two countries assured through an international peace force.
The Palestinian refugee issue is creatively solved by the return of some Palestinians to their new state and by compensating all needy Palestinians with massive social and economic empowerment programs. But money is not enough to redress injustice.
Israel acknowledges its moral responsibility for causing immense suffering to Palestinian refugees. Arab states acknowledge their exploiting the issue of Palestine to defend their excessive investment in military defense. The US acknowledges its inconsistent policies on social justice in the Middle East.
A long-term Palestinian compensation package of scholarships, job training, adequate housing and nation-building projects is funded by Arab oil revenues and by Israeli-US-European commitments.
Softly partitioned, Jerusalem is the shared capital of Israel and future Palestine, with the East (Arab) and West sides (Israeli) remaining integrated. Access to religious sites remains free to all.
Allow me to continue my scenario.
Israel is offered full diplomatic relations with 22 Arab countries. Israelis and Arabs are invited to invest in each others' countries. Regional water projects are activated.
Jews no longer have to think of gaining security through engineering Arab insecurity; Arabs no longer have to consider Israel's prosperity as the primary source of their misery.
In this dream I have mixed facts with wishful thinking to show that the parameters for ending the Arab-Israeli conflict are known. What is missing is the political climate for conflict resolution. Could Obama be a catalyst for this dream of peace?
*Published in Lebanon's THE DAILY STAR on Monday, November 3, 2008. Ghassan Michel Rubeiz is an Arab-American reviewer and commentator. |
