Obama's Middle East

Tarek Rashed

Bets are high, hopes are great and expectations are soaring with the first scion of a Muslim parent taking over the helm of the world's superpower. The Arab world has reveled in its dreams with the election of Barack Obama with speculations running abuzz that he will be different from his predecessor in handling the world's most chronic conflict, namely the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

But the realists might be more reasonable in their calculations as they admit that their jubilation is less motivated by hopes in resolving the conflict than by gloating over the loss of the Republicans whose history is replete with armed conflicts and wars. Although Obama's approach to the Middle East conflicts remains in the womb of time, the choice of the very first official in his administration might sour the sweet taste of his victory.

The appointment of Illinoi's Democratic representative Rahm Emanuel to be the White House Chief of Staff might augurs ill to the Palestinian cause, given the powerful impact of that post on the policies of the president and the choice of his aides inside the kitchen of the world's operation room. Emanuel is not only an influential figure in the Democratic Party and the Congress at large. He is a dedicated pro-Israel defendant who is ready to sacrifice anything to safeguard the security and well-being of the Jewish state.

His father, Benjamin Emanuel, was an active member in the notorious Zionist Irgun gang, which was tagged by the U.N. as a terrorist organization. And his uncle was killed during skirmish with Arabs in Jerusalem. Emanuel himself abandoned everything to return to Israel during the Gulf War to help rust-proof the Israeli military equipment in anticipation of any Iraqi attacks during the reign of the late president Saddam Hussein.

The Jews trickled down on the outgoing administration of President George W. Bush until they counted about 41 officials overseeing and managing some of the most dangerous and sensitive posts in the US government. There are two of them who are still pouncing over the deepest secrets of the administration inside the White House One is the Chief of Staff himself, Joshua Bolten and the other is Eliot Abrams, the Deputy National Security Advisor who presides over the Middle East file.

The Jewish holidays used to pass unnoticed before Bolten took over from Andy Card in March 2006 when President Bush no longer left one Jewish holiday without marking it inside the White House. Bolten and Abrams have played a pivotal role in influencing Bush's policies towards the Middle East, which reflected in dragging foot on resolving the issues, slapping an inexorable siege on Gaza, licking the second promise given by Bush to help establish the Palestinian state.

Ironically, he fulfilled his promise the other way around by splitting the Palestinian territories into two states - one ruled by Hamas's Ismail Haniya in Gaza and the other ruled by the Palestinian Authority's Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank!

Obama's statements on Muslims and his soft position versus the hardcore support for Israel the Bush administration has always adopted have been an indication that his stance over the conflict might remain pro-Israel but is unlikely show the cruel nonchalance Bush showed towards the sufferings and the spilled blood of Palestinians.

Obama significantly backpedalled on the remarks he delivered during the annual conference of the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) that was held in June when he said that Jerusalem must remain a unified capital of the state of Israel. He corrected it in the following day, saying that the issue should be part of the final-status negotiations. He did not care about how this would affect his campaign. But Obama's free motion during the campaign, propelled by the massive popular support, might be over now that his hands will be tied down by the overwhelming support Israel enjoys in the Congress. There is no pro-Israel resolution that comes to the Congress without having a landslide nodding.

Besides, Obama will recognize that delving directly into this thorny issue that has been hanging over for more than 50 years will raise the hell at a time his priorities focus primarily on the most pressing issues inside. He will find out that putting his house in order and strengthening his internal front will give him more leverage to influence a resolution, if there will be any.

According to the program touted by Obama's campaign all through, resolving the situation in Iraq comes atop the agenda of the priorities that will be taken up by his administration once he is sworn in on January 20. Then enter a cluster of foreign problems that have been nagging Bush and will definitely haunt Obama. First of them is the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, then the standoff with Iran, the extent to which North Korea has gone in disabling its nuclear facilities, the missile crisis with Russia, conflicts in Darfur, Somalia, Congo, the growing challenge in Asia with the rising of China as a rival economic and military power, the war on terror in Pakistan, in addition to the trade disputes and ambitions and, above all, the global financial crisis.

The Middle East will remain a black hole on the new administration's agenda for a good part of Obama's first term unless a major incident erupts. But Washington will not go back to its blind obedience to whatever Israel wants and will not adopt Bush's measures, which tended to starve Palestinians in Gaza and turn a blind eye to the atrocities perpetrated by the occupiers. In this case, Obama has to be extremely cautious about his life.

*Published in Egypt’s The Egyptian Gazette on November 12, 2008. Tarek Rashed is the correspondent of the Middle East News Agency (MENA) in Washington.