Future of Iraq

Faisal Al Rfouh

Debate on the future of Iraq seems to have started gathering momentum in the wake of reports on the proposed US withdrawal by the end of 2011.

Plans to conduct a referendum that could have expedited the withdrawal of American forces have seemingly been put on backburner for now.

According to a recent media report, Iraqi politician and member of the Iraqi national assembly Sami Askari, who is close to Prime Minister Nouri Maliki, does not rule out the possibility of a new Iraqi parliament being elected in January 2010 to revive the referendum plan.

The problems facing a post-election Iraqi government would include forming a stable and strong government, accommodating the aspirations of all Iraqi communities, especially Arab Sunnis, rehabilitating the Iraqi refugees, reconstructing the war-ravaged economy, maintaining internal security and forging close relations with Arabs, particularly the neighbouring Arab countries.

Political instability has haunted Iraq since the operation Desert Storm, at the outset of the 1990s, and continues to be a big problem even now. The only beneficiary from this situation are the Kurdish groups, so the upcoming government will have to accommodate interests of all groups equitably to prevent outside machinations to destabilise Iraq.

The Iranian machinations can be prevented by meeting the political aspirations of all the Iraqis: Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds, Turkmen, etc., and bringing them into the national mainstream.

The rehabilitation of the refugees will be a huge challenge for the new government in Baghdad.

According to a report released by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, in January 2009, there were approximately 2.8 million internally displaced Iraqis and two million that had fled to other countries.

There is also a need to strengthen the parliamentary institutions catering to the national requirements of unity, sustainable economic development, territorial integrity and Arab solidarity.

The semblance of security - both internal and external - that pervades Iraq today is mostly due to the presence of American troops which are being withdrawn gradually.

Iraq’s forces will require time, more training and better equipment to be a viable alternative to the American forces, so the participation of the previous army is essential to the stability of Iraq.

In the meanwhile, the Arab League can take the initiative by sending an Arab Peace Force as an alternative after the US withdrawal, to help Iraq maintain peace and stability.

Such a move can be facilitated under the mandate of the Arab League and of the Islamic Conference Organisation, in cooperation with the UN. This will also dissuade Iran to interfere in Iraq.

The new government will have to ensure a strong and stable government in Baghdad and to take suitable measures to prevent Iraq from becoming the site of proxy battles between other regional powers.

A strong, stable and prosperous Iraq is essential to maintaining peace and stability in the Arab Gulf. Once the new government comes to power in Baghdad, it should accord priority to forging closer relations with its immediate Arab neigbhours.

The Arab countries should also extend full cooperation to Iraq so that it does not become a playing field again for foreign powers and terrorist organisations.

Such a move will be in the Arab interest because instability in one country adversely impacts its neighbours as well.







*Published in Jordan's THE JORDAN TIMES on October 21, 2009. The writer, former minister of culture, professor and chairman of the Political Science Department, University of Jordan, is president of the Orient Centre for Studies and Cultural Dialogue.