In fact, Iran is betting on the policy of openness adopted by Barack Obama, and is seeking to continue with this wager to the very end…i.e. up until this policy fails. Just as Benjamin Netanyahu succeeded in defeating the American president in one of the most important issues of the region, namely the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Supreme Guide of Iran, Ali Khamenei, and his president, Ahmadinejad, want to defeat Obama on the nuclear issue. It is as if they are saying: we are here and this is our position, so show us what you can do!
Indeed, the principled stances taken by the American president, whether in terms of arriving at a satisfactory, two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, or in terms of ending the conflict with Iran on the basis of “extending a hand in peace” to this nation - and the recognition of its regime in the hope that it will respond to the wishes of the international community, these stances have managed to shake the fixed convictions in both countries with regard to relations with the superpower. However, after an initial, short period of testing [the intentions of the U.S., both countries discovered that they can confront Barack Obama without huge costs, and end the attempts to effect reconciliation and cooperation between these two countries and the world, which the White House has championed.
Moreover, the Israelis have used their influence through the Jewish lobby in the U.S. to prevent any opportunity for the latter to flex its muscles in what regards the settlement issue. This is while the Iranians have relied, and continue to rely, on their assessment of the dangers of any possible confrontation with America and Israel, and also of Obama’s inability to enter into such a confrontation, while incurring daily losses in Afghanistan. Thus, they have played the game of stalling in order to achieve what a direct confrontation would not.
Furthermore, this Iranian-Israeli harmony, in terms of their interests, if not more, has its practical translation into more than one area of our region: First, there is the current paralysis in the peace process which is a direct result of the intra-Palestinian division. This division is well known in terms of who funds it and feeds it, and is also well known in terms of the benefits it gives to the Israelis. This is especially valid when these latter have been denying the existence of a “partner for peace” even during the days of the late Yasser Arafat, and even more so now when they are faced with two “partners”!
Similarly, there is also the game of mutual interests in south Lebanon, which has become an arena for exchanging Iranian-Israeli messages, more than its being a Lebanese region that is searching for someone that will liberate the remaining occupied parts, or for someone who would dare take the path of international negotiations to recover these, as has been offered by the United Nations on numerous occasions.
Thus, there is harmony between the Iranian and the Israeli interests, which the Arab region is paying the heavy price for in various countries, and on all the front lines of conflicts, from Yemen to Iraq, and passing through the Gulf. With the total Arab desertion coupled with the helplessness of the international community, which have reached the point of collusion in dividing up the spoils, our region is turning into an open area in which any party strong enough can fill the current vacuum, in a way that suits it size and satisfies its desires.
*Published in the London-based AL-HAYAT on Nov. 2, 2009. |
