Despite the woes of the financial crisis, two devastating and unpopular wars, the US remains the world’s superpower. US interests in the Middle East has not changed; protecting Israel, securing cheap oil and preventing ‘radical’ regimes from gaining power. Traditionally, the US played the role of protector to Gulf States. That relationship has only strengthened following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the escalation of Iran’s dispute with the west over its nuclear weapons programme.  

Obama’s initial demand that Israel freezes it settlement has evolved to what appeared more like a plea for Tel Aviv to restrict the construction of new projects. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton even went so far as to praise Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for offering “unprecedented” concessions on West Bank settlement constructions and hailed his commitment to restarting peace talks.

There is no reason to expect that Obama will be able to break the deadlock in Palestinian-Israel negotiations. This is because leadership, while an important component in peace making, is not solely sufficient to change policies when it comes to this conflict.

In order for peace to be realized between the Palestinians and the Israelis, there needs to be a major shift in the status quo that would lead the powers involved to make concessions. Although Israel and the US’s hegemonic maneuvers in the region do not go unchallenged, no major event has taken place to justify a reassessment of policies on the Israeli or American side.

With superior military power and virtually unconditional support from the US, Israel maintains the upper hand in its negotiations with the Palestinians. There is also the ever reliable pro-Israeli lobby in Washington to affectively influence policies and politicians. While Iran and its proxies may irritate Tel Aviv, non-state actors are no match for Israel’s power and a direct conformation with Iran is unlikely to take place in the near future with Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons a good-enough deterrence.

There is also no urgency for the Americans to broker a deal between the Palestinians and the Israelis.
The fact that the Arab and Muslim world resents the US for supporting Israel is not a new revelation. Nor is the occasional suicide bomber blowing himself up and calling ‘death to the US,’ a strong enough motivator for the US to reconsider its policy towards the Jewish state.US presidents, policymakers, advisors, analysts and maybe even the average Joe, all know that US support of Israel is the number one Arab grievance. This was not sufficient to change US policy in the past and it remains insufficient today with the Obama administration in power.

Despite the woes of the financial crisis, two devastating and unpopular wars, the US remains the world’s superpower. US interests in the Middle East has not changed; protecting Israel, securing cheap oil and preventing ‘radical’ regimes from gaining power. Traditionally, the US played the role of protector to Gulf States. That relationship has only strengthened following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the escalation of Iran’s dispute with the west over its nuclear weapons programme.

The US also enjoys strong relations with other Arab countries beyond the Gulf States. Egypt and Jordan have proven reliable allies and even countries such as Syria managed to keep a civil and at times, cooperative relations with the US when I’s in line with its interests.

Late Syrian President Hafez Al Assad cooperated with the US on a number of crucial issues. Syria’s initial intervention in Lebanon was made under the blessing of the US, the two countries were on the same camp during the Iran-Iraq war, and Syria joined US led coalition against Iraq in the Persian Gulf War. Following the September 11 attacks, Syrian President Bashar Al Asad shared information to help the US fight ‘terrorism,’ and although the two countries may appear to clash regarding Iraq, in reality they both have a shared interest in ensuring that violence doesn’t spill over and that Iraq doesn’t spin out of control.

There is no doubt that US involvement is essential in any future Israeli-Palestinian talks. However, US hegemonic position in the region remains unchallenged and despite the pressure that Iran and its proxies exert, there isn’t an imminent threat to US security that would prompt it to become a more even-handed negotiator, or to suddenly put resolving the Palestinian-Israeli dispute on the top of its to-do-list.

Similarly, Israel doesn’t have an incentive to make major concessions at the present time. It took a devastating war to push a defeated Sadat to reassess his policy and offer Israel peace. Israel had much to gain from accepting the extended Egyptian hand. Until a major enough event triggers a reshuffling of priorities and policies, it doesn’t matter who resides in the White House.



*Special to Al Arabiya. Dina Khanat is an Arab-American writer living in Dubai, UAE.