Two months ago we had hopes that the Syrian crisis might reach an end through adequate reforms offered by President Bashar Al Assad. We awaited the surprising last-hour speech, as it was quite clear that the crackdown has further ignited the flames of the uprising. But it never happened.
Two weeks ago, the concept of violence reached its peak and savagery reached a level that blocked all ways to hope, prompting the condemnation of a country like Saudi Arabia, which urged the Syrian leadership to stop the massacres and pulled out its ambassador from Damascus.
Now we have to accept the reality that the Syrian regime has wasted all chances and became in windward. All we have to think about now is how the Syrian uprising—the most important in the Middle East region—would end. Here are three possibilities that could lead to the fall of the regime:
First possibility: An international interference under an Arab coverage and a Security Council resolution, by which Turkey would be the spearhead and a key participant in the international forces until they reach Damascus.
Second possibility: The international community moves with slow paces towards agreeing on direct military intervention, either due to Russian or Chinese disapproval, or out of fear of embroiling the west into another war similar to that of Iraq and Afghanistan. At this stage, peaceful protests would be turned into armed resistance with international support. This is capable of forcing the regime out, but in a longer time and with bigger sacrifices.
Third possibility: A change might happen from within the regime, leading to the fall of the current leadership, paving the way for an acceptable political solution that would end the crisis.
Certainly it is not impossible that the Syrian regime might escape through more bloodshed, amid an international inability to face it. It might also escape by benefiting from the aid provided by its Iranian ally in the form of weaponry, forces and money. However, it is unlikely that the Syrian regime could escape safely, in light of the ferocious crackdown. The regime kills children, women and mourners. Its men attack and rob houses and shops. Most of the people are now determined to topple the regime.
The strategy followed by Assad’s regime is based on terrifying and suppression. It has ruled for 40 years only through planting the element of fear. The regime wants to recall its experience in the city of Hama almost 30 years ago when it buried more than 30,000 people, after which it won its security and stability.
The world is now different than the time when the first Hama massacre was committed. The policy of killing and terrifying is increasing the international pressure on him. His closest allies are now distancing themselves from him. Those close countries are currently fueling the international public opinion and Arabs in specific, which now call for an international intervention.
News from Syria makes the heart bleed..Seven mourners at a funeral and seven children were killed yesterday. Dozens of dead bodies for people who have been tortured to death were handed over to their families. The series of dreadful stories never ends. That’s why the regime will end.
Abdul Rahman Al Rashed is General Manager of Al Arabiya and an internationally known columnist