Troubles are awaiting Iraq unless radical changes take place in time.
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is facing an alliance of four major political blocs in a confrontation that could bring down his government and produce a new interim prime minister.
The four leaders — Iraqiya List leader Iyad Allawi, leader of the Sadrist Movement Moqtada Al Sadr, Kurdistan President Massoud Barzani and Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament Osama al-Nujaifi — have sent a request to the National Alliance (NA), calling for the replacement of Maliki by another candidate chosen by the alliance.
The four represent the largest groups in Iraq. Allawi is a Shiite and his Iraqiya List is supported by the Sunnis, including Nujaifi. Sadr is a Shiite close to the Iranian theocratic regime. Barzani represents the Kurds of the north.
The NA had reportedly one week to comply with the request, which was dated April 28 and set a 15-day deadline for the implementation of the demand. The deadline has ended, with no action by the NA.
Allawi’s National Accord Movement said the political blocs decided to postpone withdrawing confidence from Maliki until all of them agree on what would happen under different scenarios and what the reaction would be in each case.
That is indeed a smart decision, because Maliki, a Shiite who became prime minister backed by Tehran and pro-Iranian elements in Iraq, could hit back hard at his adversaries.
Maliki seems to have adopted the iron-fist policies of Saddam Hussein, a Sunni, in order to crush dissent.
He has taken actions that challenge the very concept of democracy that the U.S. had claimed to have introduced in post-Saddam Iraq.
Massoud Barzani and Sadr accused Maliki of moving towards dictatorship by consolidating his power through keeping control of the interior and defense ministries — which control the country’s security forces.
Maliki is also accused of trying to exercise control over the electoral system by removing the current head of the election commission who had refused to act as the prime minister ordered during the last elections, years ago.
In technical terms set by the new Iraqi constitution, a request for a withdrawal of confidence from the government could be made either by the president or by one fifth of the members of parliament.
President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, is reported to have sent his resignation letter in an effort to step up pressure on Maliki. According to Kurdistan Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani, Talabani supports Kurdistan’s position in its disputes with Baghdad.
Apparently, the letter will be used merely as a pressure card against Maliki.
Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) are strategic allies and ruling parties in the Kurdish autonomous region. Talabani’s decision to send his letter to the Kurdistan Democratic Party should bring the two parties closer.
Maliki convened a Cabinet meeting in Mosul last week, attended by over 100 political and tribal leaders, but Kurdish leaders stayed away.
The Kurds also complain that Maliki’s security forces are making mass arrests in the Nineveh province and moving the detainees to Baghdad where they are systematically tortured.
There are several disagreements between the central government in Baghdad and the Kurds. These include rights over oil in Kurdistan and a Kurdish push to expand the autonomous territory in what many see as a prelude to setting up an independent Kurdistan.
These differences burst into the open when, early this year, the Maliki government launched a crackdown on the Sunni leadership, starting with charges that Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi was running a death squad against Shiites. Hashemi fled to Kurdistan in December and stayed there for some time before leaving the country.
A court in Baghdad is trying Hashemi in absentia.
The tug-of-war continues between Maliki and Sunnis, Kurds and secularists. There will be no clear winners until Tehran makes up its mind whether it wishes to continue to back Maliki or have another pro-Iranian prime minister in Iraq.
The writer is a prominent columnist. The article was published in Jordan Times on June. 9, 2012