Last Updated: Mon Nov 01, 2010 19:35 pm (KSA) 16:35 pm (GMT)

Pakistan must avoid Myanmar's fate

Husain Haqqani

General Pervez Musharraf may have won a legal battle when Pakistan's Supreme Court made it possible, on a technicality, for him to run for president without giving up his position as army chief. But "legal" is not the same as "legitimate".

A government headed by a serving general in uniform is, by definition, a military regime. For a government to qualify as civilian and democratic, its head must be elected as a civilian and under the spirit of the constitution.

Since taking power in a military coup in 1999 and especially since 9/11, Musharraf has invoked three principal arguments to secure international backing and to justify his continuation in power.

The first of these is his status as a US ally in the global war against terrorism; the second relates to Pakistan's rapid economic growth under military rule and the third is based on the idea that Musharraf is a benign dictator, not a malevolent one. Recent developments in Pakistan have contradicted each of these lines of reasoning.

Musharraf's efficacy as a bulwark against terrorism has been exposed as parts of Pakistan have slipped deeper under the influence of Islamist extremists.

With US intelligence confirming that Al Qaida enjoys a safe haven in remote regions of Pakistan, Musharraf's claims about saving Pakistan from becoming a terrorist safe haven are ringing hollow.

Musharraf has repeatedly asserted that he is good for Pakistan's stability mainly because the country's economy has grown at a rate of 6-8 per cent annually under military rule.

Small group

This rapid economic growth is not based on major expansion in manufacturing or agriculture, the areas that affect the lives of a majority of Pakistanis. As a result, it has benefited only a small group with ties to Pakistan's military and civilian oligarchy.

Musharraf's Western supporters have also said that he is not as repressive as other military dictators, which coupled with other reasons justifies his continuation in office.

But Musharraf has always been selectively repressive and repression is rising along with threats to its continuing in power.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, James Hookway recently attributed the current violence in Burma (Myanmar) to some core beliefs of the Burmese army. "The country's military rulers will go to any lengths to crush civil opposition," he wrote, adding that the two core beliefs of Myanmar's generals were "that only the army can keep the ethnically diverse country together and that if the generals don't act decisively, they may be ousted by their own army rivals".

A similar set of beliefs can be found among the higher echelons of Pakistan's army and is certainly a major factor in Musharraf's assertion of his indispensability to Pakistan.

Musharraf and his military backers also fear Pakistan's disintegration or consignment to international irrelevance without the steadying hand of the army. Pakistan is culturally, economically and historically very different from Burma (Myanmar), which explains why cooption of some civilians and selective repression has been enough to maintain military rule.

The army has ruled Burma (Myanmar) uninterrupted since 1960 whereas Pakistan's military has had to cede power to civilians (as was the case after the military defeat of 1971) or to share power in an attempt to retain its institutional credibility (1988-1999).

Socialist model

Furthermore, Burma's military opted for a socialist model resulting in economic stagnation.

But a military mindset that does not recognise the value of civilian control eventually descends to the depths where Myanmar finds itself today. Pakistani patriots must prevent putting their country down that slope by working towards an orderly transition from military to civilian rule based on civilian, rather than military, ascendancy.


*Published in the UAE's GULF NEWS October 2, 2007. Husain Haqqani is Director of Boston University's Centre for International Relations, and Co-Chair of the Islam and Democracy Project at Hudson Institute, Washington D.C. He is author of the book 'Pakistan between Mosque and Military'.

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